Despite coming away with a losing bonus point from France on Friday night, Saints are really going to be up against it to make it through to the quarter-final stages of this season’s Heineken cup.
I cannot see them getting much more than five points in total from their two games against Ulster, and by the time Ulster play Castres again I think the French side will be out of the contest. I predict it will end up being a comfortable win for them.
Saints were really up against it from the off due to the short turnaround week, and with the damp conditions in Toulouse it really did favour the home team and their heavyweight pack.
Saints would have been hoping for dry conditions to really to move the juggernaught Castres forward pack around, who to me really did look like they could with spending a little more time on their fitness! Saints head of conditioning Nick Johnson would have a field day in the gym with the shape of most Castres forwards - and some of their backs saying that!
I distinctly remember a few years ago when the French players first started to come and play in the Premiership in large numbers, they were always shocked by the levels of fitness expected on this side of the channel. It was not unusual to hear stories of our English players going the other way being equally amazed by the French relaxed attitude to work in the gym!
Castres look like a team from an earlier French era which amused me watching them, but that aside their big forwards pushed Saints around for much of Friday night’s encounter and revelled in the wet conditions, so perhaps there is still a hope for an old-school style team in the modern game.
It is fair to say referee Allain Rolland does not seem to be a fan of the Saints.
Certainly to the naked eye he penalised Northampton off the park for most of the first half. There has been a lot of moaning and whingeing about Rolland’s performance, but I have to say in most respects he was right to penalise the Saints. I went through the video afterwards and looked at all his calls, and in reality Saints need look no further than the mirror when analysing what went wrong. To blame Rolland would definitely be deluding oneself.
It was an evening for some patience, pragmatism and a spot-on accurate kick-and-chase game, and in all those areas Saints were very much second best to a simple but effective Castres game plan.
Having said all of that, Saints still got themselves into a position where they could have got more than a losing bonus point in the second half, but again a lack of accuracy and critically patience in the final third let them down. I thought by the end of the encounter Castres were hanging on somewhat – not only down to the pressure building from the Saints, but also from a rapidly fading Castres team who clearly were well behind Northampton in the fitness area of the game.
SAINTS FACE BIG TEST AGAINST SARACENS
This weekend will see Saints go into their first big Premiership test of the season with Saracens’ visit to the Gardens.
Sarries have been really impressive over the first two weekends of European competition.
A few weeks ago I was critical of their restrictive game plan, but the freedom of Europe has truly allowed them to express themselves. I think it will be an uncomfortable return to the Gardens for Chris Ashton, I am not certain he will get the warm response from the Saints faithful that other returning players have been afforded, some people will find it hard to forget what happened.
Ashton aside, I am really concerned about this weekend.
I think Sarries are hitting some form and Saints still look like they are still struggling in some areas. Their usually rock-solid set-piece has been wobbling; defensively they have looked vulnerable on occasions and have leaked far too many soft points both in Europe and the Premiership games. Sarries are a miserly side in terms of giving away points, despite their league position they have conceded the least this season, while Saints’ defence on the other hand have a points against tally much more akin to a team at the lower end of the table.
Those bare statistics worry me, much as it pains me to say this I think Northampton could be facing their first home defeat of the season.
I have not seen enough over the last few weeks to fill me with too much confidence.
Northampton are definitely the team heading into this clash with the most questions to answer, let’s hope that they can.
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